The Valley PaperSources1994

Sources

The Valley Between Here and Abundance, version 1.0 (October 28, 2026), by Brian Senjem. Sources are numbered in the order the figures first appear and grouped by Part. “Computed” marks figures the paper calculates from the inputs named. Later uses of a source refer back to its first number. Where a figure rests on a secondary report because the primary could not be opened, the entry says so. Entries 138 to 140 were added on October 28, 2026, after the list was numbered; each sits with the Part where its figure appears. The paper is at thevalleypaper.com.

Front matter

  1. Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think, Free Press, Feb 2012.
  2. Brian Senjem, “Job Security: The Age of Anxiety,” MBA paper, MGMT 630, Minnesota State University, Mankato (then Mankato State University), March 15, 1994. Posted at https://thevalleypaper.com/1994.

Part 1

  1. Peter H. Diamandis, “About,” diamandis.com. https://www.diamandis.com/About — Founder and Executive Chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation; co-founder of Singularity University; host of Moonshots; author of Abundance (source 1); MD. Abundance360 and Metatrends are his, per the same site and sources 3–10. His engineering degrees (MIT) are listed in his Wikipedia entry, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Diamandis; secondary. Added Oct 28, 2026; the reference is the opening paragraph of Part 1.

  2. Peter H. Diamandis, “The Death of the Company,” Metatrends, Aug 26, 2026. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/the-death-of-the-company — “approximately 100x more performant than today’s companies”; “about 20% of your current headcount”; middle management “collapses by 60 to 80%”; Salim Ismail’s pilots with ten companies.

  3. Peter H. Diamandis, “There Is No Job Apocalypse,” Metatrends, Sep 2, 2026. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/there-is-no-job-apocalypse — “a net gain of 78 million jobs.”

  4. World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025, ch. 2, Jan 7, 2025. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/in-full/2-jobs-outlook/ — 170 million created, 92 million displaced, net 78 million by 2030.

  5. Peter H. Diamandis, “The Organizational Singularity Is Here,” Metatrends, Apr 15, 2026. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/the-organizational-singularity-is — “five times as many startups”; “four to five times more numerous but 75-80% smaller.”

  6. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, monthly data, Oct 14, 2026 release. https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/current/index.html — 6.9% of 2026 applications plan wages; computed from wage-planning applications (289,542) ÷ all applications (4,193,457), Jan–Aug 2026, seasonally adjusted.

  7. Peter H. Diamandis, “From UBI to UHI (In 3 Steps),” Metatrends, Mar 29, 2026. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/from-ubi-to-uhi-in-3-steps — “THE VALLEY THAT MUST BE NAMED”; “Name the valley. It runs from approximately 2026 to 2031”; “It is a design problem”; “the valley between here and there”; “The logistics managers, the paralegals, the customer service workers, the junior analysts”; “The 57% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck”; “$3,000 per month, $36,000 per year”; “$1,000 per month or less”; Phase 1 (2025–2028) “mass displacement arrives faster than safety nets can respond”; Phase 2 (2028–2031); Phase 3 (2031–2035) “collapse the cost of transportation, housing, healthcare, food, and energy.” Quotations checked against the essay Oct 19, 2026.

  8. Peter H. Diamandis with Daniel Schreiber, “A Plan for UHI (Universal High Income),” Metatrends, Jan 29, 2026. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/a-plan-for-uhi-universal-high-income — “To be clear, that’s not survival-level subsistence. It’s lower-middle-class security. For doing nothing.”

  9. Moonshots with Peter Diamandis, EP #298, “Can We Still Build AI Safely? The White House Thinks So,” with Emad Mostaque, released about Oct 2, 2026. https://www.diamandis.com/podcast — the basic-needs floor described on the episode as basic subsistence; confirmed by the author against the episode, Oct 19, 2026. Added Oct 28, 2026; the reference is in Part 1.

Part 2

  1. Peter H. Diamandis, “What Counts as a Moat in the Age of AI?,” Metatrends, Sep 24, 2026. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/what-counts-as-a-moat-in-the-age — “The founders who get hurt in the next five years will be the ones who still believe they have a wall.”
  2. U.S. Department of Labor, ETA, Comparison of State Unemployment Insurance Laws 2023, Table 4-6. https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2023/special.pdf — 31 states plus DC have short-time compensation; Colorado among them.
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, Income in the United States: 2025 (P60-289), Sept 15, 2026. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2026/demo/p60-289.html — household income upper limits: 40th percentile $68,600; 60th $110,300; 90th $261,300; 95th $354,000 (confirmed by the author against the Census tables, Oct 19, 2026); 137.1 million households (HINC-01, CPS ASEC 2026, all households, Total row 137,100 thousand, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/tables/hinc-01/2026/hinc01_1.xlsx; confirmed by the author Oct 28, 2026). Household counts computed from percentile shares × 137.1 million (30% ≈ 41 million; 5% ≈ 7 million). Also from HINC-01 (all households, confirmed by the author Oct 28, 2026): households with income under $15,000, 9,407 thousand, 6.9% of 137,100; under $40,000, 30,694 thousand, 22.4%. The 67% to 86% pay cut is $36,000 (source 8) against the 60th and 90th percentile limits, $110,300 and $261,300.
  4. Congressional Budget Office, The Distribution of Household Income, 2023, Sept 24, 2026. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62761 — “For the average household in each quintile, labor income makes up the bulk of income.”
  5. U.S. Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis, “Distribution of Income by Source (2025 Income Levels),” Table 2025-002, Jun 12, 2024. https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/Distribution-of-Income-by-Source-2025.pdf — middle quintile 73% labor income; computed from the 40th–50th and 50th–60th percentile rows: (823.0 + 1,083.6) ÷ (1,138.7 + 1,474.1).
  6. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business 2026, Feb 3, 2026. https://advocacy.sba.gov/2026/02/03/frequently-asked-questions-about-small-business-2026/ — 36.2 million small businesses.
  7. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Table 7b, 2025 annual averages. https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat07b.htm — about 93 million adults 25+ with a bachelor’s or higher; computed as the sum of ages 25–54 (56.8M), 55–64 (14.9M) and 65+ (21.1M).
  8. Pew Research Center, “Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?,” Jul 26, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/07/26/which-u-s-workers-are-more-exposed-to-ai-on-their-jobs/ — 19% of workers most exposed (2022 data); about 28 million, computed from nearly 13 million men + 14.6 million women (27.6 million).
  9. Tax Foundation (from IRS Statistics of Income), “Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data,” Tax Year 2023, Apr 15, 2026. https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/who-pays-federal-income-taxes-tax-year-2023/ — 47.9%, computed as the top 25% share (86.31%) minus the top 1% share (38.40%).
  10. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditures—2024 (USDL-25-1586), Dec 19, 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cesan_12192025.htm — top 40% ≈ 61% of spending; computed from quintile averages ($89,972 + $150,342) ÷ the sum of all five. Next update after v1.0: Oct 29, 2026.
  11. Social Security Administration, “Retirement Age and Benefit Reduction.” https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/ageincrease.html — full retirement age 67 for those born in 1960 or later.
  12. FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, Denver MSA, via FRED (ATNHPIUS19740Q), updated Aug 25, 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS19740Q — a 2013 house at $475,000 is worth about $1.1–1.2 million in 2026 (index 201.36 in 2013 to 492.50 in 2026 Q2). Next update after v1.0: Oct 27, 2026.
  13. Computed: $280,000, 30 years, 3% fixed = $1,180.49 a month principal and interest (standard amortization).
  14. U.S. Department of Education, annual federal student loan interest rates notice, Federal Register Doc. 2023-26052, Nov 27, 2023. https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2023-26052.pdf — Parent PLUS rates by year, 5.30% (2020-21) to 7.54% (2022-23).
  15. Computed: Parent PLUS payment of about $340 a month on $30,000 at a blended rate over a standard 10-year term.
  16. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, “Employment, all workers, architectural services (NAICS 541310),” via FRED (IPUMN541310W200000000), updated Jun 3, 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUMN541310W200000000 — 241,300 (2007) to 178,400 (2011), −26.1%, “more than a quarter.” Cross-check: BLS payroll employment (CES, NAICS 54131) as reported by Architect magazine, https://www.architectmagazine.com/practice/2014-job-growth-for-architecture-landscape-architecture-and-engineering_o — 214,100 to 152,900 (−28.6%).
  17. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll employment, via FRED (PAYEMS). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS — total U.S. employment −4.4%, 2007 to 2011 annual averages; −6.3% peak to trough.
  18. American Institute of Architects, 2012 AIA Survey Report on Firm Characteristics, Sept 2012, as reported by Dexigner, Sep 17, 2012. https://www.dexigner.com/news/25607 — firm billings from more than $44 billion (2008) to $26 billion (2011), “a 40% decline.” Secondary; the survey is a paid report and AIA’s release page is no longer online.
  19. CBS News, “Anthropic researcher…,” Sep 9, 2026. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ai-kill-humans-anthropic-researcher-more-than-ten-percent-chance/ — Hubinger: “>10% within the next decade”; “we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence.” Also AP via WCAX, Sep 9, 2026: https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/09/anthropic-researcher-resigns-with-warning-about-dangers-ai-development/

Part 3, group A: How the hit arrives at the firm

  1. Diamandis, Sep 24, 2026 (source 10) — the 90-day test: “could a frontier model plus a motivated team rebuild your product or service in ninety days?”; revenue “from $160 million to $50 million”; “He isn’t depressed; he’s paying attention.”
  2. Peter H. Diamandis, “Can Anyone Become an Entrepreneur?,” Metatrends, Apr 23, 2026. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/can-anyone-become-an-entrepreneur — “the remaining barrier is almost entirely psychological.”
  3. Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen, “Canaries in the Coal Mine?,” Stanford Digital Economy Lab, August 2026 version. https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2026/08/Canaries_August2026.pdf — 22–25-year-olds in most-exposed jobs down about 11%, least exposed up about 10%, Nov 2022 to Jun 2026; “descriptive.”
  4. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates,” 2026 Q2. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market — unemployment about 5.6%; underemployment 42%.
  5. Citi Global Wealth at Work and Hildebrandt Consulting, 2026 Citi Hildebrandt Client Advisory, Dec 11, 2025 (Law Firm Leaders Survey, July 2025, 55 large firms), p. 14. https://www.citiglobalwealth.com/atwork/insights/citi-hildebrandt-client-advisory — 86% plan to grow associate ranks through 2027; 35% plan to grow first-year classes.
  6. Dan Hendrycks, Dawn Song, Christian Szegedy, Honglak Lee, Yarin Gal, Erik Brynjolfsson, Sharon Li, Andy Zou, Lionel Levine, Bo Han, Jie Fu, Ziwei Liu, Jinwoo Shin, Kimin Lee, Mantas Mazeika, Long Phan, George Ingebretsen, Adam Khoja, Cihang Xie, Olawale Salaudeen, Matthias Hein, Kevin Zhao, Alexander Pan, David Duvenaud, Bo Li, Steve Omohundro, Gabriel Alfour, Max Tegmark, Kevin McGrew, Gary Marcus, Jaan Tallinn, Eric Schmidt and Yoshua Bengio (33 authors), “A Definition of AGI,” arXiv 2510.18212, v1 Oct 21, 2025; v3 Dec 3, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18212 ; project page https://agidefinition.safe.ai/ — AGI defined as “the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult,” scored across ten cognitive domains weighted equally. Table 1: GPT-5 (2025) AGI Score 57%; GPT-4 (2023) 27%. GPT-5 by domain, each out of 10%: general knowledge 9%, reading and writing 10%, mathematics 10%, on-the-spot reasoning 7%, working memory 4%, long-term memory storage 0%, long-term memory retrieval 4%, visual processing 4%, auditory processing 6%, processing speed 3%. The paper reports no scores for models released after GPT-5; none had been published by the authors as of Oct 28, 2026. Tegmark’s position on superintelligence: Future of Life Institute, “Statement on Superintelligence,” Oct 2025, https://superintelligence-statement.org/ — calls for a prohibition on developing superintelligence until there is broad scientific consensus that it can be done safely and controllably, and strong public buy-in. Added Oct 28, 2026; the figure appears in A1.

Part 3, group B: Why the household cannot absorb it

  1. WTW, salary budget survey release, Jul 15, 2026. https://www.wtwco.com/en-us/news/2026/07/employers-shift-from-bigger-pay-budgets-to-smarter-pay-strategies-wtw-finds — 3.5% (2025, 2026); 3.4% projected (2027).
  2. Mercer, “US employers stick with moderate pay increases for 2027,” Aug 31, 2026. https://www.mercer.com/en-us/about/newsroom/us-employers-stick-with-moderate-pay-increases-for-2027/ — 2027 merit 3.2%, total 3.5%.
  3. The Conference Board, “US Salary Increase Budgets 2026–2027,” Sep 3, 2026. https://www.conference-board.org/publications/US-salary-increase-budgets-2026-2027 — 3.4–3.5%.
  4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index, Jul 31, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/eci_07312026.htm — wages +3.2% civilian, +3.1% private, year to June 2026. Next update after v1.0: Oct 30, 2026.
  5. KFF, Employer Health Benefits Survey 2026, Oct 22, 2026. https://www.kff.org/health-costs/2026-employer-health-benefits-survey/ — family premium $28,303, +5% ($1,310); worker contribution $7,471, +9%. The 2025 figure, $26,993 (+6%), is from the 2025 survey, Oct 22, 2025, https://www.kff.org/health-costs/annual-family-premiums-for-employer-coverage-rise-6-in-2025-nearing-27000-with-workers-paying-6850-toward-premiums-out-of-their-paychecks/, and is the endpoint for the 2000–2025 growth rates in 47.
  6. Kaiser Family Foundation and HRET, Employer Health Benefits 2000 Annual Survey. https://www.kff.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/7002.pdf — family premium $6,351 (2000).
  7. College Board, Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2025, Table CP-1. https://research.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/Trends-in-College-Pricing-and-Student-Aid-2025-final_0.pdf — public four-year in-state tuition and fees $11,950 (2025-26).
  8. College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2006, Table 3b. https://research.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/trends-college-pricing-2006-full-report.pdf — $3,508 (2000-01, current dollars; $3,510 as first published in 2000).
  9. CareScout (formerly Genworth), Cost of Care Survey 2025, Mar 2, 2026 — private nursing-home room, national median $129,575.
  10. Genworth Financial, Cost of Care Survey 2004, as reported by ThinkAdvisor and McKnight’s, Jan 2005 — private nursing-home room, national average $65,200 ($179 a day). Secondary; the 2004 report is not online. Genworth’s 2007 and 2008 releases state increases of 15% and 17% over 2004, consistent with this figure. The 2004 figure is an average and the 2025 figure is a median.
  11. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, via FRED (CSUSHPINSA), Sep 29, 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA — 100 (Jan 2000) to 337.31 (Jul 2026), +237%.
  12. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Oct 14, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm — CPI-U 172.2 (2000 average) to 321.94 (2025 average), +87%.
  13. Social Security Administration, National Average Wage Index series. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/cola/awiseries.html — $32,154.82 (2000) to $72,800.33 (2025), 2.26×, +126%.
  14. Computed: 25-year annual growth rates from sources 38–46: premium 6.0% ($6,351 to $26,993; 2000–2026, to $28,303, is 5.9%); tuition 5.0% ($3,508 to $11,950); homes 4.7%; nursing home 3.3% ($65,200 to $129,575, 21 years); wages 3.3%; prices 2.6%.
  15. FHFA House Price Index, Denver MSA (source 21) — 2000 Q1 147.27 to 2026 Q2 492.50, +234%.
  16. Federal Reserve Board, “Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2022 to 2025: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances,” Oct 9, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf26.pdf — median net worth $362,500 (60th–80th income percentile), $814,600 (80th–90th), $3,669,900 (top tenth). Ratios computed: 4.5× and 10.1×.
  17. Computed: Linda’s home equity $820,000 = $1.1 million value − $280,000 mortgage.
  18. Internal Revenue Service, Topic No. 701, Sale of Your Home (reviewed Oct 12, 2026). https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701 — up to $500,000 of gain excluded on a joint return.
  19. Internal Revenue Service, Rev. Proc. 2025-32, §4.03. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-25-32.pdf — 2026 long-term capital gains brackets (15% rate for joint returns to $613,700).
  20. Internal Revenue Service, Topic No. 559, Net Investment Income Tax. https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc559 — 3.8% above $250,000 modified AGI (joint).
  21. Colorado Legislative Council Staff, Economic & Revenue Forecast, Sept 2026. https://content.leg.colorado.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/sept2026-forecast-with-cover-for-remediation-and-posting-accessible.pdf — Colorado income tax rate 4.40% for tax year 2026.
  22. Computed: home-sale costs. Commission 5–6% of $1.1 million = $55,000–$66,000. Gain = $1.1M − commission − $475,000 basis = $559,000–$570,000; taxable after the $500,000 exclusion = $59,000–$70,000; tax at 15% + 3.8% + 4.4% = $13,700–$16,200. Total $71,000–$80,000 (sources 51–54). Improvements to the house would lower the gain further.
  23. Irving Fisher, “The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions,” Econometrica 1(4), Oct 1933 — debt fixed in dollars grows heavier as prices and incomes fall.
  24. City and County of Denver, Assessor’s Office, Assessment FAQ, 2025 levy. https://www.denvergov.org/Government/Agencies-Departments-Offices/Agencies-Departments-Offices-Directory/Department-of-Finance/Our-Divisions/Assessors-Office/Assessment-FAQ — combined residential mill levy 79.602 (local government 27.328; schools 52.274), confirmed by the author against a 2025 Denver tax statement. Property tax of about $5,800 computed from $1.1 million × 2025 residential assessment rates (6.25% local, after the value exemption; 7.05% schools) × the two levies. Next update after v1.0: tax-year 2026 levy, mid-December 2026.
  25. Colorado Division of Insurance, “Hail is the Number One Cost Driver,” Feb 11, 2026. https://doi.colorado.gov/sites/doi/files/documents/DOI_Hail_One_Pager.pdf — average homeowner premium in Denver County $3,040, from 20 carriers writing 80% of the market.
  26. AARP and National Alliance for Caregiving, Caregiving in the US 2025, Jul 24, 2025. https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/ltss/family-caregiving/family-caregiving-in-us-2025/ — more than 51 million caring for someone 50 or older.
  27. Pew Research Center, “Financial Help and Independence in Young Adulthood,” Jan 25, 2024. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/01/25/financial-help-and-independence-in-young-adulthood/ — 59% of parents of 18–34-year-olds helped financially in the past year.
  28. Pew Research Center, “More than half of Americans in their 40s are ‘sandwiched’…,” Apr 8, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/04/08/more-than-half-of-americans-in-their-40s-are-sandwiched-between-an-aging-parent-and-their-own-children/ — 23% of adults in the sandwich generation.
  29. U.S. Census Bureau, “Families and Living Arrangements: 2025,” Dec 2, 2025. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/families-and-living-arrangements.html — 58% of 18–24s and 16% of 25–34s live with a parent.
  30. Federal Reserve Banks, Small Business Credit Survey: 2026 Report on Employer Firms, Mar 3, 2026. https://www.fedsmallbusiness.org/reports/survey/2026/2026-report-on-employer-firms — revenue and employment expectations at their lowest since the 2020 survey.
  31. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct 22, 2026. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms — 30-year fixed 7.32% (7.40% the week before).
  32. REcolorado, September 2026 Housing Market Report, Oct 7, 2026. https://www.recolorado.com/september-2026-housing-market-reports/ — Denver metro median $575,000.
  33. Computed: $575,000 × 80% = $460,000 at 7.32%, 30 years = $3,160 a month, 2.68 × $1,180.49.
  34. USDA Economic Research Service, The 20th Century Transformation of U.S. Agriculture and Farm Policy (EIB-3), June 2005. https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/laserfiche/publications/44197/13566_eib3_1.pdf — 41% of the workforce in agriculture in 1900. Today: BLS CPS Tables 1 and 17 (2025), https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat17.htm — agriculture 1.4% of employment, computed from 2,225 ÷ 163,493 thousand.
  35. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing employment, via FRED (MANEMP), Oct 2, 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MANEMP.txt — 19.553 million (June 1979 peak) to 12.652 million (Sept 2026).

Part 3, group C: Why it spreads through the economy

  1. The Henry Ford, “Henry Ford: $5 Day” (digital collections). https://www.thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/sets/7138 — $5 for an eight-hour day, up from $2.34 for nine.
  2. Daniel M. G. Raff and Lawrence H. Summers, “Did Henry Ford Pay Efficiency Wages?,” NBER Working Paper 2101, Dec 1986 (Journal of Labor Economics 5(4), 1987). https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w2101/w2101.pdf — turnover 370% (1913), 54% (1914), 16% (1915).
  3. Henry Ford with Samuel Crowther, My Life and Work, Doubleday, Page & Co., 1922, ch. VIII “Wages,” p. 124. https://archive.org/details/mylifework01ford — “I believe in the first place that, all other considerations aside, our own sales depend in a measure upon the wages we pay.”
  4. Brett Hemenway Falk and Gerry Tsoukalas, “The AI Layoff Trap,” arXiv 2603.20617, Mar 21, 2026 (v3 Jun 3, 2026). https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20617 — firms over-automate; of the fixes tested (UBI, capital taxes, upskilling, an automation tax), only the automation tax works.
  5. Fortune, “Elon Musk… work will be optional,” Nov 20, 2025. https://fortune.com/2025/11/20/elon-musk-tesla-ai-work-optional-money-irrelevant/ — “My prediction is that work will be optional. It’ll be like playing sports or a video game or something like that.”
  6. Diamandis, Sep 24, 2026 (source 10) — “The question is who captures it.”
  7. S&P Global Ratings, “AI Infrastructure Investment To Exceed $1.3 Trillion By 2027,” Aug 27, 2026. https://press.spglobal.com/2026-08-27-AI-Infrastructure-Investment-To-Exceed-1-3-Trillion-By-2027,-S-P-Global-Ratings-Says — “projected to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2027.”
  8. 2026 capital-spending guidance, latest as of the Q2 2026 reports: Meta Platforms, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, Jul 29, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000162828026050596/meta-06302026xexhibit991.htm ($130–145B); Alphabet Q2 2026 call, Jul 22, 2026, https://abc.xyz/investor/ ($195–205B); Microsoft FY26 Q4 call, Jul 29, 2026, https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor (about $175B, calendar 2026); Amazon Q2 2026 call, Jul 30, 2026, https://ir.aboutamazon.com (about $220B). About $730 billion and +77% computed from the guidance midpoints ($732.5B) against 2025 actuals ($91.4B + $131.8B + about $118B + $72.2B = $413.4B). Next update after v1.0: Q3 calls, late October.
  9. Social Security Administration, 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Table VI.G1. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2026/lr6g1.html — taxable payroll $11,043 billion (2026).
  10. SemiAnalysis (Megalaa, Kan, Patel), “Anthropic Subscriptions Offer 5x+ More Value Than OpenAI,” Oct 5, 2026. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-subscriptions-offer-5x — subscriptions “just 10% of overall revenue”; “can take up over 40% of inference compute”; −369% and about 6% gross margin on the most expensive model.
  11. OpenAI Q1 2026 revenue $5.7 billion and operating loss $9.3 billion, from shareholder documents, as reported by The Information, Jun 16, 2026 (via The Decoder, https://the-decoder.com/openai-tripled-revenue-to-5-7-billion-in-q1-but-burned-through-3-7-billion-to-get-there/) and the Wall Street Journal, Aug 2026. Secondary; the shareholder documents are not public.
  12. OpenAI Help Center, “About ChatGPT Pro tiers.” https://help.openai.com/en/articles/9793128-about-chatgpt-pro-tiers — Pro 200 reopened with a lower usage allowance; Pro 500 added (Sept 29, 2026).
  13. Netflix, press release, Jul 12, 2011. https://ir.netflix.net/files/doc_news/archive/fc0c2b74-b851-4269-a228-7f60ed268ff5.pdf — “The unlimited streaming plan will remain at $7.99 a month.” Current: Netflix Help Center, plans and pricing, https://help.netflix.com/en/node/24926 — Standard $19.99.
  14. Uber Technologies, Form 10-K for 2022, filed Feb 21, 2023. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000154315123000010/uber-20221231.htm — accumulated deficit $32.767 billion at Dec 31, 2022; 2023 net income $1.887 billion (10-K for 2023), the first profitable year since the 2019 IPO.
  15. CNBC analysis of Rakuten Intelligence data, Aug 30, 2021, as reported by Popular Science. https://www.popsci.com/technology/uber-and-lyft-rides-getting-more-expensive/ — ride prices +92%, Jan 2018 to Jul 2021. Secondary.
  16. Fortune, Aug 2, 2023 (Bloomberg Second Measure and YipitData). https://www.fortune.com/2023/08/02/uber-ceo-dara-khosrowshahi-uber-costs-in-new-york-city — +30% (early 2018 to Q3 2019) and +41% (Q3 2019 to Q3 2022); +83% computed by compounding 1.30 × 1.41. Secondary.
  17. Intuit, “QuickBooks price changes,” Jun 26, 2026 (updated Jul 13, 2026). https://quickbooks.intuit.com/r/product-update/quickbooks-price-changes/ — new prices from Aug 1, 2026; “new AI-powered capabilities.” Current Plus price $140: https://quickbooks.intuit.com/pricing/. The $70 price: Insightful Accountant, “QuickBooks Online Price Changes,” Jun 1, 2021, https://insightfulaccountant.com/accounting-tech/general-ledger/quickbooks-online-price-changes — “QBO Plus - Going from $70 to $80/month,” effective Jul 15, 2021 for new subscriptions.
  18. Broadcom, “Broadcom to Acquire VMware for Approximately $61 Billion in Cash and Stock,” May 26, 2022. https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-acquire-vmware-approximately-61-billion-cash-and-stock
  19. AT&T Services, Inc. v. Broadcom Inc., New York State Supreme Court, New York County, Index No. 654490/2024. Affirmation of Susan Johnson, Sept 27, 2024, NYSCEF Doc. 105; her Aug 19, 2024 email to Broadcom CEO Hock Tan, Exhibit A, NYSCEF Doc. 107 — “This proposed annual increase of +1,050% in one year is extreme and certainly not how we expect strategic partners to engage in doing business with AT&T.” Filing confirmed by the author on NYSCEF, Oct 19, 2026. Also reported by The Register, Oct 1, 2024, https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/01/att_broadcom_filings_update/, and CIO Dive, Oct 1, 2024, https://www.ciodive.com/news/att-broadcom-vmware-price-hikes-court-battle/728603/. The case settled Dec 13, 2024; the email states the proposed increase, not what AT&T paid.
  20. European Cloud Competition Observatory (with CISPE), Appendix to the 2nd ECCO Report on Broadcom, May 2025. https://www.cispe.cloud/website_cispe/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Appendix-to-Broadcom-Report-002.pdf — “price hikes to the Commission ranging from 800% to 1,500%.”
  21. Hans Gundlach, Jayson Lynch, Matthias Mertens and Neil Thompson (MIT FutureTech), “The Price of Progress,” arXiv 2511.23455, v1 Nov 28, 2025; v2 Mar 23, 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.23455v2 — price of a given performance level fell about 5–10× a year; about 3× a year from algorithms.
  22. Tim Ferriss, “Has AI Already Killed How-To Nonfiction?…,” tim.blog, Jun 12, 2026. https://tim.blog/2026/06/12/has-ai-already-killed-nonfiction/ — his catalog’s print units −46% (2025), −57% pace (2026 to date).
  23. Publishers Weekly, “First-Quarter Print Sales Fell 3.1%,” Apr 6, 2026. https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/print/20260406/100067-first-quarter-print-sales-fell-3-1.html — self-help −26.3%; adult nonfiction −8.8%.
  24. Congressional Budget Office, “CBO’s 2026 Long-Term Projections for Social Security,” Sep 17, 2026. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62556 — retirement trust fund exhausted in fiscal 2032; 2032 cost 16.5% of taxable payroll against income of 12.9%, a 3.5-point gap; 75-year shortfall 4.57% of taxable payroll (figures from CBO’s workbook as summarized by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Sep 21, 2026, https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-projects-social-security-nearing-insolvency).
  25. Social Security Administration, 2026 Trustees Report, Sec. II.E. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2026/II_E_conclu.html — depletion 2032; 78% of benefits payable after.
  26. Computed: the C4 replication. Inputs: CBO’s 2032 cost rate, 16.5% of taxable payroll, and income rate, 12.9% (source 92); a permanent 6.3% reduction in taxable payroll, equal to the 2008–10 peak-to-trough fall in U.S. payroll employment (source 26); benefits held at CBO’s dollar level, so the cost rate becomes 16.5 ÷ 0.937 = 17.6%; revenue scaling with payroll, so the income rate stays 12.9%. Gap: 17.6 − 12.9 = 4.7 points against CBO’s 3.5, about 35% more. The same shock applied to the 75-year shortfall gives 5.7 points against 4.57, about 26% more. The author’s arithmetic, not a CBO projection.
  27. U.S. Department of Labor, ETA, “Solvency of State Unemployment Insurance Trust Funds,” 2016. https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/trustFundSolvReport2016.pdf — 36 state programs depleted their funds; $51.2 billion outstanding at the peak, May 31, 2011.
  28. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, payroll employment via FRED: Colorado (CONA), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CONA — −154,000 (−6.5%), May 2008 to Jan 2010; U.S. (PAYEMS, source 26) — −8.7 million (−6.3%); state and local government (CES9092000001, CES9093000001) — −747,000.
  29. Colorado Legislative Council Staff, Economic & Revenue Forecast, March 2026, Table 10. https://content.leg.colorado.gov/sites/default/files/march2026forecastwithcover-accessible.pdf — general fund 58% income tax and 27% sales and use; computed from FY 2024-25 actuals: $9,997.9M and $4,657.7M ÷ $17,181.3M.
  30. Denver occupational privilege tax, $5.75 employee and $4.00 employer a month, as listed in OnPay’s Colorado occupational privilege tax table, https://help.onpay.com/hc/en-us/articles/201533015 (viewed Oct 2026). $117 a year computed from $9.75 × 12.
  31. City of Greenwood Village, “Occupational Privilege Tax (OPT).” https://www.greenwoodvillage.com/1220/Occupational-Privilege-Tax-OPT — $2 employee and $2 employer.
  32. City of Glendale, “Occupational Privilege Tax.” https://glendale.co.us/355/Occupational-Privilege-Tax — $5 employee and $5 employer.
  33. City of Sheridan, Occupational Privilege Tax. https://www.ci.sheridan.co.us/index.aspx?NID=288 — $3 employee and $3 employer a month, due every month, no stated earnings threshold (confirmed by the author, Oct 19, 2026).
  34. Sentinel Colorado, Dec 5, 2025. https://sentinelcolorado.com/metro/contentious-head-tax-repeal-in-aurora-now-irreversible-city-officials-say/ — Aurora OPT repeal effective Jan 1, 2025.
  35. Colorado FAMLI Division, Employers page. https://famli.colorado.gov/employers — 0.88% in 2026, split evenly between employer and employee; employers with fewer than ten employees are not required to pay the employer share but still remit the employee share. Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, press release, Oct 6, 2026, https://cdle.colorado.gov/press-releases/press-release-colorados-family-and-medical-leave-insurance-famli-announces-lower — 0.86% from 2027.
  36. Colorado General Assembly, HB 26-1223, “Modifying Certain Tax Expenditures,” signed Jun 4, 2026. https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/hb26-1223 — software “available for repeated sale and license” taxable from Jan 1, 2027. Legislative Council Staff, Fiscal Note (Second Revised), May 6, 2026, https://leg.colorado.gov/bill_files/115937/download — cloud computing exempt under current law; SaaS scope uncertain. The Department of Revenue convened a rulemaking workgroup Aug 18, 2026; no rule has been issued.
  37. Census Business Formation Statistics (source 7) — monthly wage-planning share 7.4% (January) to 6.4% (August 2026).
  38. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics, Table 7, “Survival of private sector establishments by opening year.” https://www.bls.gov/bdm/us_age_naics_00_table7.txt — 20.3% of establishments opened in 1994 survived 20 years.

Part 3, group D: Why reaching abundance does not fix it

  1. Computed: changes since 2000 from sources 38–46: premium +346% (to $28,303, 2026); tuition +241%; homes +237%; nursing home +99% since 2004; wages +126%; CPI +87% (to the 2025 average).
  2. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “Direct Graduate Medical Education (DGME),” modified Sep 30, 2026. https://www.cms.gov/medicare/medicare-fee-for-service-payment/acuteinpatientps/dgme — residency cap at 1996 levels; 1,000 slots (CAA 2021) + 200 (CAA 2023).
  3. Federal Trade Commission, “Pay-for-Delay: How Drug Company Pay-Offs Cost Consumers Billions,” Jan 2010. https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/pay-delay-how-drug-company-pay-offs-cost-consumers-billions-federal-trade-commission-staff-study/100112payfordelayrpt.pdf — about 17 months’ delay; about $3.5 billion a year.
  4. Eli Lilly and Company, press release, Mar 1, 2023. https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-cuts-insulin-prices-70-and-caps-patient-insulin-out-pocket — Humalog list price cut 70%.
  5. Novartis AG, Form 6-K, May 24, 2019. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1114448/000117184319003609/f6k_052419.htm — Zolgensma $2.125 million.
  6. Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Casgevy price notification to the Vermont Attorney General, Jan 7, 2024. https://ago.vermont.gov/sites/ago/files/2024-08/HCDL%202024%20Q1/CASGEVY%20Notification%20Pursuant%20to%2018%20V%20S%20A%20%20%C2%A7%204637(c).pdf — $2.2 million.
  7. bluebird bio, Form 8-K, Dec 11, 2023. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1293971/000119312523292087/d84993d8k.htm — Lyfgenia $3.1 million.
  8. IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024, July 2025, summary Table S1. https://www.irena.org/Publications — utility-scale solar cost of electricity $0.417 to $0.043 per kWh (−90%); total installed cost $5,283 to $691 per kW (−87%), 2010–2024.
  9. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct 6, 2026. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf — residential price 17.30¢/kWh (2025, +5.0%); 18.21¢ (2026, +5.3%); 18.68¢ (2027).
  10. PJM Interconnection, capacity auction release, Jul 14, 2026. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/about-pjm/newsroom/2026-releases/20260714-pjm-capacity-auction-procures-138318-mw-of-generation-resources.pdf — 2028/29 cleared at the cap, third straight; 6,831 MW short. 2027/28 auction release (Dec 17, 2025): nearly 5,100 of 5,250 MW of added load from data centers.
  11. TrendForce, press releases, Jun 1, 2026, https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260601-13070.html, and Jan 19, 2026, https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260119-12883.html — DRAM contract prices +93–98% (Q1 2026); +58–63% forecast (Q2); supply tight through 2027.
  12. GE Vernova, Q2 2026 results, Form 8-K, Jul 22, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001996810/000199681026000147/gevpressrelease2q26.htm — gas backlog and output plans. Q1 2026 call (Apr 22, 2026), as transcribed by Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/ge-vernova-q1-earnings-call-030652565.html — lead times “directionally at about three years”; “We sold a lot of 2030 slots.” Q2 2026 call (Jul 22, 2026), as reported by EUCI, Aug 18, 2026 — 2031 “more than halfway” contracted. Call quotations are from transcript services; the company does not post its own transcripts.
  13. Counterpoint Research, Sep 3, 2026. https://www.counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-existing-smartphone-prices-climb-about-15-percent-in-2026 — phone prices 2026 to date: U.S. about +5%, India about +21%.

Part 4

  1. Diamandis, Sep 2 and Sep 24, 2026 (sources 4 and 10) — audience lists; “consulting, law, accounting” face existential risk (citing Goldman Sachs); AI “can’t negotiate, build trust, make judgment calls under uncertainty, or read a room”; entry-level roles such as data entry and junior paralegal work “are being vaporized.” Farmworkers +35 million: WEF (source 5).
  2. U.S. Department of Labor, elaws WARN Advisor. https://webapps.dol.gov/elaws/elg/layoffs.htm — federal threshold 100 employees. New York State DOL, https://dol.ny.gov/worker-adjustment-and-retraining-notification-warn — 50. California EDD, https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Layoff_Services_WARN/ — 75.
  3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, Aug 7, 2026, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_08072026.htm, and Oct 2, 2026, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm — unemployment 4.1% (July, August), 4.2% (September); payrolls +29,000 (September); participation 61.8% (September).
  4. Hunton Andrews Kurth, “New York WARN Act: No AI-Related Layoffs Reported…,” May 18, 2026. https://www.hunton.com/hunton-employment-labor-perspectives/new-york-warn-act-no-ai-related-layoffs-reported-in-first-year-of-adding-ai-related-disclosure-to-the-system — more than 160 companies; no notice attributed to AI.
  5. Moonshots with Peter Diamandis, EP #301, Oct 7, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRdb8UmPnh0 — Diamandis on aviation rules being written after accidents; Emad Mostaque on most fears being already regulated and on the missing map; Dave Blundin on abundance arriving as deflation rather than GDP growth (near 1:57). All three confirmed by the author against the episode transcript, Oct 19, 2026.

Part 5

  1. Cerulli Associates, Mar 18, 2025. https://www.cerulli.com/press-releases/more-than-72-of-financial-advisors-are-compensated-by-fee-based-models — 72.4% of advisor pay from asset-based fees. Charles Schwab press release, Oct 1, 2019 — online stock and ETF commissions to $0 from Oct 7, 2019.
  2. Bank WIR, “Geschichte.” https://www.wir.ch/de/bank-wir/ueber-uns/geschichte/ — founded 1934.
  3. Internal Revenue Service, Topic No. 420, Bartering Income (updated Oct 8, 2026). https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc420.html
  4. CLES, “Community Wealth Building: harnessing the potential of anchor institutions in Preston,” Oct 19, 2017. https://cles.org.uk/community-wealth-building-harnessing-the-potential-of-anchor-institutions-in-preston/
  5. Home Owners’ Loan Corporation, final report pages, data as of Dec 31, 1951 (FRASER, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/holc/pages/61351_1950-1954.pdf — 1,017,821 loans; surplus of $14.1 million.
  6. U.S. DOL, Comparison of State UI Laws 2023 (source 11) — 31 states with work-sharing.
  7. German Federal Government, “Arbeitsmarkt Juni 2020,” Jul 1, 2020. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/arbeitsmarkt-juni-2020-1765548 — 6.83 million on short-time work, April 2020 (preliminary).
  8. Alaska’s News Source / Alaska Beacon, Sep 30, 2026. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/30/permanent-fund-dividends-will-be-distributed-alaskans-starting-this-week/ — 2026 dividend $1,200. Secondary; the Alaska Department of Revenue’s own page was not opened.
  9. Falk and Tsoukalas (source 72) — automation tax.
  10. AICPA Code of Professional Conduct, independence rule for financial interests (ET 1.240.010; pre-codification ET 101), as posted by the PCAOB. https://pcaobus.org/Standards/EI/Pages/ET101.aspx — “Independence shall be considered to be impaired if… a covered member — Had or was committed to acquire any direct or material indirect financial interest in the client.”
  11. SIGTARP, testimony of Neil Barofsky, Oct 6, 2011, https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/100611barofsky.pdf — HAMP “intended to help 3 to 4 million homeowners.” U.S. Treasury, MHA Program Performance Report, 4Q 2017, https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/initiatives/financial-stability/reports/Documents/4Q17%20MHA%20Report%20Final.pdf — 1,691,134 permanent modifications started.
  12. 11 U.S.C. §1322(b)(2), Cornell Legal Information Institute. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/11/1322 — a Chapter 13 plan cannot modify a claim secured only by the debtor’s principal residence.

Part 6

No new sources. The sticky-income chart (question 2) uses sources 38–47 and 107.

Part 7

  1. Creative Commons, Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Figures that rest on secondary reports

The primary document could not be opened for these; each entry above says so. Architecture firm revenue (27); the 2004 nursing-home figure (43); OpenAI’s quarterly figures (79); Uber ride prices (83, 84); the Alaska dividend (132); and the GE Vernova call quotations (118). The paper’s rule is that any figure a reader can show to be wrong comes out in the next version.

Next updates after version 1.0

FHFA House Price Index, Oct 27, 2026 (21, 48). BLS Consumer Expenditures 2025, Oct 29 (19). Employment Cost Index, Oct 30 (37). Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon Q3 calls, late October (76). New York Fed recent-graduate update, November (32). Denver tax-year 2026 mill levy, mid-December (57). AGI Score for models after GPT-5, if the authors publish one (138).

© 2026 Brian Senjem. Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (see Part 7). Back to the paper.